叁是居民信贷是否下降?从直觉感受上,净资金盈余对应信贷的下降,但实际上,居民短期贷款表现高于往年,上半年居民中长期贷款增加1.46万亿元,亦超出市场预期。需要关注的是居民中长期贷款中的结构改变,根据华创证券研究,2017词2021年,居民中长期贷款中73%左右的资金是个人住房贷款,11%左右的资金是居民中长期非住房消费贷款,16%左右的资金是居民中长期经营贷款;今年以来,居民中长期贷款中大致70%是经营贷款,15%左右是个人住房贷款,15%左右是居民中长期非住房消费贷款。这当中有置换前期房贷的因素。从这一点来看,后期居民贷款保持高增是比较困难的。
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