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越来越可怕的台积电原创2020-01-29 12:04·半导体行业观察台积电是一家既可敬又可怕的公司可敬的是其突破性的芯片代工模式颠覆了半导体行业的游戏规则;可敬的是其成为晶圆代工界的黄埔军校为代工界培育了大量的人才;可敬的是其对中国半导体产业所作出的贡献但台积电也越来越可怕可怕在其过去数十年的霸主地位仅一家便吞下晶圆代工的半壁江山;可怕在其对先进工艺的追逐7nm几乎独揽生意5nm进入量产阶段2nm已有谋划;可怕在其早早地对先进封装技术的未雨绸缪和远见并不断取得突破十年磨一剑不半导体业可能要更久半导体业没有弯道超车有的只是在这个炽热和浮躁的大环境下的冷静和坚持过去十年不断攀升的市占率台积电的专业芯片代工模式改写了半导体产业的游戏规则长久以来台积电一直处于晶圆代工界的老大其市占率逐年攀升过去十年台积电的市占率一度处于一半以上的态势也因此格罗方德曾向欧盟和中国投诉台积电垄断2009年台积电的市占率为45%正值金融危机之时已经退休4年的张忠谋重回台积电上任之后张忠谋带领台积电全力冲刺当时最前沿的28nm制程芯片这一年台积电实现了40nm量产和28nm的开发并且开始部署20nm的研发2010年台积电经历了强势复苏的一年其所有晶圆代工厂满负荷运转并实现了14%的产能提升且40/45nm实现全面量产28nm也开始和客户预约订单2010年台积电的市占率上升为47%2011年全球半导体市场增长接近于零对台积电来说是具有挑战的一年但台积电市占率仍增长了2%由2010年的47%上升到49%这主要是由于在台积电的技术优势下全球主要IC领导厂商与台积电、联电的关系将更为紧密助其全球晶圆代工市场地位日益稳固除此之外台积电在2011年下半年率先提供28nm制程的量产技术2012年凭借平板电脑和智能手机等移动IC的强劲需求台积电实现了创纪录的营收和利润其产能迅速转向28纳米出货量也比2011年增长了30倍2012年台积电的市占率增长到49.5%2013年台积电28纳米出货量和收入快速增长并且引入了FinFET晶体管结构使得16纳米获得了更好的性能除此之外台积电还开始了10纳米工艺的研发台积电的市占率为46%得益于28纳米技术的强劲需求以及客户对20纳米片上系统代工的快速接受和需求提升2014年台积电创收和利润再次达到新纪录其市占率一举跃升到53.7%其16nm FinFET Plus于2014年12月按计划完成技术认证7纳米技术进入了高级开发阶段2015年全球经济发展疲软阻碍了半导体的发展但受益于先进工艺的发展台积电20纳米订单增加了一倍16纳米FinFET工艺也被成功引入10纳米取得了良好的进展并且完成了技术认证7纳米在产量和良率上都得到了提升2015年台积电在晶圆代工市场的市占率上升到55%据 IC Insights 的统计资料显示台积电在2016年以59%的市场占有率排第一这主要是得益于台积电通过成为世界逻辑IC行业技术和能力的可信赖提供商10纳米取得成功量产7纳米完成了技术认证2017年台积电10纳米工艺订单激增7nm量产并抓住了移动设备、高性能计算、物联网和汽车半导体的机遇不但在收入、净利润和每股收益上都实现了稳健的增长还为台积电在未来几年建立了强劲的发展势头2017 年台积电于全球晶圆代工市场的市占率高达 55.9%根据CINNO Research 产业研究统计的晶圆代工排名中2018年积电的市占率为53.3%据调研机构Trendforce指出台积电2019年第四季在代工市场的市占率为52.7%而且2019年11月台积电市值一举超越三星的市值达到约2620亿美元台积电市值显著走高主要与全球半导体生态系统的变化有密切关系随着手机时代的到来高性能及高节能的应用处理器(AP) 越显重要故台积电的高端晶圆制造技术与量产能力将能帮助台积电在市场内取得大量订单台积电市值走高还归因于格芯宣布放弃进军7 纳米制程而从格芯流出的高阶晶片订单也令台积电更为扩大在晶圆代工市场之影响力在今年年初召开的法人说明会上台积电总裁魏哲家预测受惠于5G和人工智能晶片应用快速成长台积电营收有望在2020年第一季度达到102亿-103亿美元创出新高;全年增幅则会优于产业平均值同样来到历史最高点先进工艺的垄断台积电创业初期在飞利浦的技术支持下是以3.0um与2.5um切入市场在当时落后Intel 2个世代在1999-2009这十年台积电通过高强度的资本和研发投入工艺突飞猛进逐渐赶超英特尔后来随着智能手机的兴起台积电拥抱行业最优质的客户与华为海思、苹果、高通、苹果等客户共同成长不断触底摩尔定律的极限突破14nm、7nm、5nm等技术节点也因此在先进工艺上长期处于垄断地位在先进制程的战争中28nm可以说是台积电甩开其他晶圆厂的一大制胜武器28nm制程从2011年开始量产领先竞争对手3-5年为了充分发挥技术优势台积电非常注重迅速扩张先进产能也正因为如此帮助台积电在每一个先进制程节点都能快速抢占客户资源、扩大先发优势2012年台积电在28nm制程工艺芯片市场的占有率接近100%放眼整个晶圆代工行业目前主要还剩下台积电、三星、英特尔、联电、格罗方德和中芯国际这几个头部公司再加上联电、GlobalFoundries等主要竞争对手相继宣布放弃14nm以上节点研发英特尔10nm工艺久久未出台积电在先进工艺上的垄断地位更加巩固而台积电却在先进工艺的路上愈战愈勇28nm制程攻克之后台积电的先进制程发展迅速2014年台积电启动夜鹰计划全力奋战10nm研发人员实施24小时三班轮值不停休从而大大提升了研发效率到2016年底台积电的10nm开始量产2017年10纳米开始爬坡在7nm工艺上只有台积电和三星两家能做到但台积电在市场份额上占据绝对优势2019年台积电Q3季度财报会显示台积电的先进工艺产能爆发苹果、华为、AMD等客户都相继推出了新一代7nm芯片包括麒麟990系列、A14及锐龙3000、RX 5700系列等所以台积电在7nm的订单上可谓一家独大而且7nm产能早已供不应求交付期都从2个月延长到了6个月在先进工艺的追逐战中EUV光刻机是关键的一环而在三星、台积电和英特尔三家中台积电的EUV布局当属领先Arete Research高级分析师Jim Fontanelli也表示台积电在EUV领域处于领先地位无论是所用的工具还是订购的工具生产的商用EUV晶圆的数量还是将EUV集成到他们未来的路线图中据悉今年台积电的7nm(包括EUV)晶圆产能大概在10-11万片/月三星7nm LPP(EUV)工艺的晶圆产能大概在1万张/月只有台积电的1/10左右2019年10月根据台积电联席CEO魏哲家此前公布的数据公司的5nm工艺已经完成研发目前正在风险试产量产时间也提前到了今年Q1季度目前可以确定会用5nm工艺的就有苹果、华为海思这两家是最早首发的后续AMD的Zen4处理器、高通的麒麟875、赛灵思的新一代FPGA也有望用上台积电的5nm工艺5nm之后其3nm新厂可望于明年动工更为厉害的是2nm工艺的研发也已经开启预期4年后就可以投放到市场上更先进的工艺上台积电也走在了前列在日前台积电召开的法人说明会上CFO黄仁昭介绍到对于2020年全年资本支出情况台积电给出了150亿-160亿美元的预期继2019年全年支出达到历史新高后再破记录在2020年的全部支出中约80%将用于3nm、5nm与7nm等先进制程技术上其余仅10%则用于包括先进封装与光罩另外的10%则是用于特殊级制程技术上他还指出从细分业务来看5nm、7nm等先进制程则或将成为台积电最强有力的增长动能高级封装上的进击早些年苹果iPhone处理器一直是三星独揽但从A11开始台积却接连独拿两代iPhone处理器订单关键之一就是台积电开发的全新封装技术InFO它能让芯片与芯片之间直接连结减少厚度给电池或其他零件腾出宝贵的手机空间此举也成为高级封装技术走向大规模商用的标志性事件高级封装技术在最近几年热度不断攀升已经成为高性能芯片的必选项也被视作延续摩尔定律生命周期的关键过去晶圆代工与封装厂基本都是各司其职但随着终端对芯片要求的提升一方面处理器所存在的内存墙问题大大限制了处理器的性能另一方面随着高性能处理器的架构越来越复杂晶体管数越来越多再加上先进半导体工艺的价格昂贵处理器良率提升速度差强人意为了解决这些问题先进封装开始走上风口而台积电很早就看到了这个需求2011年的台积电第三季法说会上张忠谋就宣布台积电要进军封装领域其第一个产物叫做CoWoS(Chip on Wafer on Substrate)就是是将逻辑芯片和DRAM放在矽中介层(interposer)上面然后封装在基板上两、三年后余振华领导的整合连结与封装部门顺利开发出CoWoS技术而到了量产之后真正下单的主要客户只有赛灵思一家可以看出在彼时这种技术还不能完全被一众厂商接受主要原因是价格太高后来台积电开发价格略微低的先进封装技术性能比CoWoS略差一些这也就是后来首度用在iPhone 7与7Plus的InFO封装技术台积电的两大先进封装COWOS和InFO这两年在市场上也取得了很大的优势除了CoWoS和InFO这两大2.5D IC封装技术外台积电在3D IC封装上还有SoIC 及 WoW其SoIC 及 WoW 等3D IC先进封装也陆续试产成功2018年台积电已完成搭载7纳米逻辑IC及第二代高频宽记忆体(HBM 2)的 CoWoS 封装量产并借由高制造良率、更大硅中介层与封装尺寸能力的增强、以及功能丰富的矽中介层例如内含嵌入式电容器的矽中介层使得台积电在 CoWoS 技术上的领先地位得以更加强化2019年10月台积电在美国举办的开放创新平台论坛上与ARM公司共同发布了业界首款采用CoWoS封装并获得硅晶验证的7纳米芯粒(Chiplet)系统台积电技术发展副总经理侯永清表示台积电的CoWoS先进封装技术及LIPINCON互连界面能协助客户将大尺寸的多核心设计分散到较小的小芯片组以提供更优异良率与经济效益因看好未来 5G、人工智能、高效能运算(HPC)等新应用而且芯片设计走向异质整合及系统化设计台积电不断扩大先进封装技术研发去年台积电顺利试产 7nm系统整合芯片(SoIC)及 16 纳米晶圆堆叠晶圆(WoW)等 3D IC 封装制程预期 2021 年之后进入量产不得不说原先不起眼的封装技术现在俨然成为台积甩开三星、英特尔的主要差异点在商业的推广上台积电更是不遗余力地推广高级封装领域开放生态包括封装技术、互联接口标准以及相关的IP希望能给客户带来更多价值

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20:04·fushengshuomengwangbaoqianghemaronglihunyijingwunian,wunianhouliangrendejingyuyouliaotianchadibiedegaibian,dangchutaliade“lihundazhan”chuanbianwangluo,marongbudanchugui,huanxiangyibajiangwangbaoqiangtaokong,yirifuqibairien,hekuangliangrenhuanyouyieryinv,marongsihaobugujifuqiqingfen。zuiguofendeshi,marongchuguideduixianghuanshiwangbaoqiangchaoxixiangchude“jingjiren”,zijitongchuanggongzhendeqizichaoxixiangchudexiongdigenzaiyiqiliao,liangrenhuantumouzijideqiancai,zongshiwangbaoqiangzailaoshi,mianduizheyangdeshiqingyerenwukeren,xuanzeliaolihun。lingrenzuomujieshedeshiqinghuanzaijixu,chuguidemarongpinfanshuaiguowangbaoqiang,shuozijimeiyouchugui,chuguiderenshiwangbaoqiang,huanchengwangbaoqiangjiabao,toujibuchengshibami,tameiyouchuidaowangbaoqiang,fandaoxianbazijigeichuiliao,quantouhuibianyezhaobuchuwangbaoqiangbandiancuochu,fandaohuangeiwangbaoqiangfanxiangxuanchuanyibo。ruguomarongzhishichugui,wangyouduitahuanmeiyounamedadeeyi,pianpianta“huaishi”zuojin,chuguimoucai,lihunliaohuanyao“daodayiba”,raoshichiguaqunzhongyekanbuxiaquliao,niqifulaoshirenyebushizhemehaoqifude。guozhenshitiandaoyoulunhui,yinguobaoyingbushuang,marongdebaoyingjuebujinjinshilihunnamejiandan。yiaiqingxuyaozhencheng,yanxishibunengyanyibeizide,maronggenwangbaoqiangjiuxiangshilianggeshijiederen,wangbaoqiang“caogen”chushen,kaozhuozijiyibubuconglongtaodaodamingxing,kemarongne?congxiaoshenghuofuyu,congxiaodeshenghuotiaojianjiugaoyuqitaren,zaifumudeguanaixiachengchang,shunlikaorudaxue,guozhuoyishiwuyoudeshenghuo。jinrudaxueyihou,marongchengliaoxuexiaodexiaohua,tongshiyeshouhuoliaoyidapidezhuiqiuzhe,danmarongyigeyemeiyouxuanze,congxiaojinyiyushideshenghuorangtabibierenduoliaoyifenguaoyuxurong,taxinlijuedezijiyuyibanrenshibutongde,ye“kanbushang”yibandenanren。kelinjindaxuebiye,marongyoubudebumianduixianshi,zaijianishi“xiaogongzhu”,zaishehuishangyeshigeputongde“dagongren”baliao,pianpianzhegeshihou,marongyudaoliaowangbaoqiang。wangbaoqiangshinongminchushen,shouwuxiadianyingdeyingxiang,tamengshengliaoxuewushudexiangfa,suirannongminshourubuduo,wangbaoqiangdefumuye“wangzichenglong”,yaoyajiangwangbaoqiangsongdaoliaoshaolinsi,zaishaolinsixuewuderizifeichangjianku,danwangbaoqiangfeichangkeku,meitianduqinxuekulian,xueyixianxuede,wangbaoqiangzaishaolinsilibujinjinshixueliaoyishendegongfu,huanshuliliaowenguliaozijidesanguan,zhengzhizuorenwenxinwukui。2000nian,wangbaoqianghuaichuaizhuodianyingwuxiamenglikailiaoshaolinsi,chengliaozhongduoqunyanzhongmiaoxiaodeyige,yitianzhuan20kuaiqian,shuichuzuwu,meiqianchifanjiuezhuo,shizaiedebuxingliaojiumaigemantouchongji。suiranmeitianeduzi,danwangbaoqiangdejingshenshifuzude,zuoqunyanzhiyu,tameitiandujianchixuexibiaoyanzhifa,jiusuanguodekunnan,tayeconglaibuwenjialiyaoqian,chikunailaodepinzhizaiwangbaoqiangshenshangtixiandelinlijinzhi。zhongyu,haoyunjianglinzailiaowangbaoqiangshenshang,tachengliao《mangjing》lidenanzhujiao,mianduiqiheiyipadebaimikuangjing,tashuotiaojiutiao,mianduibiaoyantaconglaibuhankuhanlei,wangbaoqiangzhipuzhenchengdebiaoyanfeichangdadongrenxin,tanaxialiaodi40jiejinmajiangzuijiaxinrenjiang。《mangjing》dakailiaowangbaoqiangderenqi,fengxiaogangyexiangwangbaoqiangpaochuliaozuozuozhi,wangbaoqianggenliudehua、liuruoyingdaxi,tayeyouyuanyushangliao《shibingtuji》,《shibingtuji》shiwangbaoqiangdeshiyezhuanzhedian,congciyihou,wangbaoqiangzhengshijinruliaoshiyeshangshengqi,zaizhegeshihou,tayegenmarongxiangyuliao。zhegeshihou,dasandemarongqianwangbeijingyijiagongsishixi,qiahaogongsicaifangdeduixiangjiushiwangbaoqiang,diyiyanjiandaomarong,wangbaoqiangjiuxihuanshangliaota,wangbaoqiangzaiyulequanyesuanjianguobushaomeinv,marongchangdepiaoliangdanyemeiyounamejingyan,zenmejiurangwangbaoqiangyiyanlunxianne?marongchangdebusuanjingweitianren,ketaqueqiahaochangchengliaowangbaoqiang“mengzhongqingren”deyangzi。erdiyiyanjiandaomarong,wangbaoqiangjiurending“zhebeizijiushitaliao”,jiemujieshuhou,wangbaoqiangzhudongyaoliaomarongdeweixin,huiquhouzhudonglianximarong,suiranwangbaoqiangdeshiyezaishangshengqi,dannageshihou《shibingtuji》huanmeiyouwanquandahuo,marongduiwangbaoqiangbiaoxiandehenlengdan,zhidao《shibingtuji》dahuo,wangbaoqiangderenqipansheng,marongdetaiduyefashengliaozhuanbian。wangbaoqiangyiweishizijidenulihuanlailiao“meirenyixiao”,quebuzhidao,marongtudegenbenbushitazhegeren,ershitabeihoudemingli。zaibierenkanlai,wangbaoqiangshigaopanliaomarong,shenzhizaiwangbaoqiangzijikanlaiyeshiruci,tajuedenengqudao“xiaohua”shizijide“fuqi”,zaimarongjieshouliaotadebiaobaihou,tajiuzaixinliananlishi:“woyidingyaohaohaoduita,yibeiziduitahao。”shishishang,wangbaoqiangyeshizheyangzuode,hunhoudetaduimarongjijintitie。zaitakanlai,marongzhemenianqingpiaoliangdeyigeguniang,yuanyigenzijifeichangnande,tamingmingyougengduogenghaodexuanze,zhegeshijieshangyoudeshibizijishuaibizijiyouqianderen,ketaquepianpianxuanzeliaoziji,zhengyinruci,wangbaoqiangconglaimeiyouhuaiyimarongduizijideai。wangbaoqianghemarongzaiyiqimeiduojiujiujiehunliao,hunhoumarongweiwangbaoqiangshengxialiaoyieryinv,wangbaoqiangshenzaiyulequanminglichang,ketaduishenghuodexiangfaquefeichangzhipu,quqishengzi,laopohaizire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anhaodaiyeshiyiboliuliang,marongkaishiliaoliuliangbianxiandedaolu。xianshikaitongliaogegepingtaidezhanghaoyingxiaoziji,fashipinchengziji“bubeizhenxi”anfengwangbaoqiang,yibiancengwangbaoqiangredu,yibianyingzaozijilihundulinvxingxingxiang,dadaofensishuhou,marongkaishijieguanggao、zhibodaihuo。taxianshizaipingtaishaichuhenduolianjiahuazhuangpin,zaibeizhiyijieguanggaohou,maronggancuikaishipinzhibodaihuo,meixiangdao,marongzhibojianderedufeichangzhigao,henduoren“muming”erlai,dandajiabushilaimaidongxide,dushilaimatade:“mazonghuanquejingjirenma,woxianzaizaijialixianzhuoliao,qianbuqianbuyaojin,guanjianshixihuanzhefenzhiye。”“jinlian,woyitanghao,laiweiyaoliao。”marongchengweiliaodangdai“panjinlian”,rangwangyoubaohannuhuodebujinjinshi“chugui”,huanyoutalihunhoudedisiburen,tayi“mingyuquan”duociqisuwangbaoqiang,danfayuandugeitabohuiliao,fayuanrenwei,wangbaoqiangdexingweibingbunenggouchengmingyuqinquan,huanyanzhi,wangbaoqiangshuodedushizhende,marongzaicibanqishitouzaliaozijidejiao。fayuandurendingdeshiqing,marongquehuanzaizhuangshachongzuo,jianchengzijimeichugui,zheshidajiazuibunengjieshoudedifang,youweiwangyoushizheyangshuode:“ruguotaananjingjingdeshenghuowomenhuanbuhuizheyang,pianpiantahuanyaozaicichuxianzaigongzhongmianqian,ruguotadunengbeijieshou,nashehuibujiushimorenliaozheyangdexingweiliaoma?”jishilihunyihou,maronghuanzaichizhuowangbaoqiangdehongli,beiwangyoupinpin“taofa”demarongzhongyubimai,xujiumeiyouchuxianzaigongzhongshiye,tanmuminglidetashenbaiminglie,shoujinqunchao,dangtashenghuoyueguoyuebuhaodeshihou,wangbaoqiangdeshenghuoqueguodefengshengshuiqi,bujinshiyeshunfengshunshui,huanyouliaoxinlianqing。xinnvyounianqingmeilihuanshanjierenyi,genwangbaoqiangdehaiziyexiangchudebucuo,danshangtiandeduimarongdebaoyingyuanbuyuci,jiantatarenzhenxinderenbuzhidebeiai,marongbeidingzailiao“chiruzhu”shang,tadiushiliaoyigezhenxinaitaderen,zaiyushengdedaolushang,takenengzaiyeyubudaoxiangwangbaoqiangzheyangaitaderen。duiqianrenzuidadebaofu,jiushiguodebitahao。zheyidianwangbaoqiangzuodaoliao,likaimaronghou,wangbaoqiangkoubeiyeshiyuelaiyuehao。jiezhi1yue13rishoupan,beixiangzijinquantianjingmairuchao130yiyuan,benzhouleijijiacangjin440yiyuan,danzhoujingmairuechuanglugutongkaitongyilailishidisan。

全(蚕耻补苍)文(奥别苍)分(贵别苍)成(颁丑别苍驳)叁(厂补苍)大(顿补)部(叠耻)分(贵别苍):下(齿颈补)沉(颁丑别苍)式(厂丑颈)玄(齿耻补苍)关(骋耻补苍);独(顿耻)立(尝颈)式(厂丑颈)玄(齿耻补苍)关(骋耻补苍);洗(齿颈)漱(厂丑耻)功(骋辞苍驳)能(狈别苍驳)玄(齿耻补苍)关(骋耻补苍)。

尘颈补苍诲耻颈辩颈补苍濒补颈虫耻苍辩颈苍诲别别谤锄颈,锄丑补苍驳锄耻谤辞苍驳虫颈耻办耻颈苍补苍诲补苍驳虫颈补驳耻颈诲补辞辩颈补苍,丑补苍濒别颈蝉丑耻辞肠丑耻濒颈补辞蝉辞苍驳谤别苍诲别锄丑别苍虫颈补苍驳,办别迟颈苍驳飞补苍锄丑颈丑辞耻,丑补颈锄颈产耻箩颈苍虫耻补苍锄别濒颈补辞测耻补苍濒颈补苍驳,箩颈耻濒颈补苍锄丑颈测耻补苍锄丑别测别产别颈驳补苍诲辞苍驳濒耻辞濒别颈,诲补苍驳苍颈补苍诲补辞诲颈蹿补蝉丑别苍驳濒颈补辞蝉丑颈尘别?锄丑补苍驳锄耻谤辞苍驳产别颈丑辞耻测辞耻测辞耻蝉丑颈尘别苍补苍测补苍锄丑颈测颈苍?锄补颈飞辞辫别苍驳测辞耻辩耻补苍箩颈耻谤别苍蝉丑颈箩颈驳别濒颈丑耻苍诲别,濒颈补苍驳谤别苍濒颈丑耻苍丑辞耻,苍惫诲别测颈产补苍诲补颈锄辞耻濒颈补辞苍惫别谤,产补别谤锄颈濒颈耻驳别颈濒颈补辞苍补苍蹿补苍驳箩颈补。测颈苍飞别颈苍惫谤别苍诲补颈锄丑耻辞苍惫别谤产颈箩颈补辞谤辞苍驳测颈箩颈补。蝉丑耻颈诲耻丑补颈辫补产补苍驳产颈别谤别苍测补苍驳别谤锄颈。飞辞尘别苍锄丑别虫颈别濒补辞产补颈虫颈苍驳产耻虫颈补苍驳驳耻辞箩颈锄丑补苍驳测耻飞补苍驳辫颈办耻测颈测补苍驳。(飞辞丑耻补颈测颈迟补尘别苍锄丑颈蝉丑颈辩颈补苍濒颈补辞虫颈别测颈箩颈别锄丑辞苍驳,别谤锄颈诲耻锄补颈驳耻辞飞补颈蝉丑别苍驳诲别。测颈丑辞耻驳耻辞箩颈锄丑补苍驳办别苍诲颈苍驳丑耻颈锄补颈驳耻辞飞补颈蝉丑别苍驳丑耻辞诲别。丑耻补迟颈肠丑别测耻补苍濒颈补辞)锄耻颈箩颈苍诲耻丑补辞虫颈补苍驳虫颈苍驳肠丑别苍驳濒颈补辞虫颈苍锄丑补辞产耻虫耻补苍诲别尘辞辩颈。

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文段信息来源:北京青年报2002年04月03日泼粪者另有其人--赵薇长沙遇袭事件再曝新闻(多图)

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