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防灭火理论考试算力风再起，通信反弹！原创2023-06-30 08:17·每日经济新闻每经编辑：肖芮冬6月29日，大盘经历早盘缩量窄震后，下午盘指数波动加大，三大指数一度全红后再一次冲高回落，沪指仍旧未能回补近在眼前缺口，日内中小票明显跑赢权重股。截至收盘，上证指数跌0.22%报3182.38点，深证成指跌0.1%，创业板指跌0.09%，北证50涨0.72%，万得全A、万得双创集体收涨。A股全天成交8672.5亿元，环比收窄；北向资金再度大幅净卖出76亿元，近3日连续减仓累计超140亿。数据来源：windAI拉动之下，科技板块比传统板块更加受到青睐，但随着估值快速提升，AI行情已经进入了下一阶段，业绩将是决定科技板块内部后续走势的主要影响因素。芯片行业每隔4-5年经历一轮周期，目前芯片行业周期仍处于下行阶段。自2022年10月以来，市场预期芯片库存周期见顶、销售额预期见底，但随着全球半导体销售额月度数据的披露，以及芯片相关公司23Q1业绩的披露，整个板块的估值（PETTM）继续磨底。对于长期投资者而言，当前是左侧资金布局的时间点。数据来源：wind从主要全球芯片公司的指引来看，经过前期的持续消化，主要领域的库存去化基本进入尾声。消费电子领域，智能手机虽然短期复苏力度偏弱，但高通等厂商亦给出了未来2个季度库存逐步去化的指引，PC和平板则有望在Q2末恢复至正常的库存水平。服务器领域，虽然上半年整体需求偏弱，但随着云厂商的复苏以及库存去化，下半年有望显著好于上半年。除了传统硬件需求的复苏，AI的赋能和自主可控将助力板块景气好转。根据OpenAI发布的报告《AIandCompute》，自2012年以来，AI训练应用的算力需求每3-4个月就会翻倍，至今AI算力增长超过了30万倍，芯片作为硬件基础，迎来黄金发展期。美日欧厂商主导全球半导体设备及零部件市场，去年以来美日荷先后对半导体出口进行管制，在此背景下，国内厂商在加快推进芯片产业链国产化进程，芯片设备及零部件国产替代正当时，未来成长空间巨大。建议关注芯片ETF（512760），一键配置芯片产业龙头。此前光模块极致演绎，背景为海外AI数据中心加速建设，下半年国内智算中心建设有望跟进，6月29日通信板块又出现反弹。数据来源：wind6月28日，2023上海世界移动通信大会拉开帷幕。从此次展会可见，超越现实+领域，元宇宙、社交和游戏规模入口已打开，下一代人工智能等前沿领域，大模型、多样性算力应用正加速落地并走向全球。随着AI大模型带来算力需求爆发式的增长，以及人工智能在智慧交通、智慧金融、生物识别、智能制造、智慧医疗、自动驾驶等场景的广泛、深入应用，中国智能算力规模将持续高速增长。根据IDC的数据，2021年智能算力规模为155.2百亿亿次/秒（EFLOPS），2022年智能算力规模达到268百亿亿次/秒（EFLOPS），预计2022-2026年中国智能算力规模的年复合增长率将达52.3%，同期通用算力规模复合增速为18.5%。AI服务器专为人工智能训练和推理应用而设计，大模型有望推动AI服务器市场加速成长。根据IDC的数据，2020年全球AI服务器市场规模为112亿美元，2025年预计全球人工智能服务器市场规模将达到266亿美元，五年复合增长率为18.9%。根据IDC的数据，2020年中国AI服务器市场规模将为35亿美元，2025年预计中国AI服务器市场规模将达到108.6亿美元，五年复合增长率为25.3%。后市来看，在复苏交易缺乏明确的宏观经济信号之前，市场交易可能依然围绕主题投资，“AI+数字经济”可能仍是投资主线之一。感兴趣的小伙伴可以通过软件ETF（515230）、计算机ETF（512720）和通信ETF（515880）布局算力基础设施的各个环节。但国内技术的发展及落地需要时间，且当前市场交易风格切换频繁，短期可能调整波动较大，需警惕风险。风险提示：投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的风险，不能保证投资人获得收益，也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及预期风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风险，提请投资者注意。板块/基金短期涨跌幅列示仅作为文章分析观点之辅助材料，仅供参考，不构成对基金业绩的保证。文中提及个股短期业绩仅供参考，不构成股票推荐，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。以上观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议或承诺。如需购买相关基金产物，请您关注投资者适当性管理相关规定、提前做好风险测评，并根据您自身的风险承受能力购买与之相匹配的风险等级的基金产物。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。每日经济新闻
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在百达翡丽、宝玑等名表上玑镂饰钉是手动车床人工雕刻的天梭肯定不能给咱们整手工雕刻天梭的饰钉是冲压出来的但现在包括爱彼部分手表的玑镂实际上也都是用母版冲压的这一圈玑镂饰钉大幅提升了天梭杜鲁尔的颜值配上镶嵌在饰钉上的立体时标豪华和古典一下就来了
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